{"id":2045,"date":"2012-10-31T07:39:39","date_gmt":"2012-10-31T11:39:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/2d823b65bb.nxcli.io\/?p=2045"},"modified":"2013-12-16T17:10:09","modified_gmt":"2013-12-16T22:10:09","slug":"libreoffices-dubious-claims-part-i-downloads","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.robweir.com\/blog\/2012\/10\/libreoffices-dubious-claims-part-i-downloads.html","title":{"rendered":"LibreOffice&#8217;s Dubious Claims: Part I, Download Counts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>(This post represents my personal opinion only.\u00a0 The <a href=\"https:\/\/2d823b65bb.nxcli.io\/blog\/who-is-rob-weir\">standard disclaimer<\/a> applies.)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/2d823b65bb.nxcli.io\/blog\/2012\/11\/libreoffices-dubious-claims-part-2-community-size.html\">Part II is here<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/2d823b65bb.nxcli.io\/blog\/2012\/11\/libreoffices-dubious-claims-part-3-developers.html\">Part III is here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h3>The Claims<\/h3>\n<p>I&#8217;ve recently read some implausible claims from the LibreOffice project,\u00a0 concerning their stats for downloads and users.\u00a0 (These two different statistics are unfortunately conflated in their publicity campaigns, but more about that later).\u00a0\u00a0 Their claims fall apart if given any scrutiny and placed against comparable numbers from Apache OpenOffice.\u00a0 I think you&#8217;ll agree by the time you are done reading my analysis .<\/p>\n<p>If this were merely yet another case of puffery from the LibreOffice marketing department then I might just let it go, as I have with many other similar claims in the past couple of years.\u00a0 But to the extent that some people seem\u00a0 take these claims as facts, and are repeating, them, then I hope I will be forgiven for giving truth a chance to be heard.\u00a0 I&#8217;ll\u00a0 lay out the numbers as I know them and let you be the judge.<\/p>\n<p>First, what do we have on the Apache OpenOffice side?\u00a0 Most of our downloads are from our download site hosted by SourceForge.\u00a0 The download stats are public and exposed by SourceForge via their<a href=\"http:\/\/sourceforge.net\/p\/forge\/documentation\/Download%20Stats%20API\/\"> REST API<\/a>.\u00a0 \u00a0 We gather these stats with a Python script (also <a href=\"https:\/\/svn.apache.org\/repos\/asf\/incubator\/ooo\/devtools\/aoo-stats\/get-aoo-stats.py\">public here<\/a>) and that data is saved to a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.openoffice.org\/stats\/aoo34-downloads.txt\">data file<\/a>, which is then <a href=\"http:\/\/www.openoffice.org\/stats\/downloads.html\">plotted on our website<\/a>.\u00a0 So everything is open and transparent here.\u00a0 The downloads are counted by a respected 3rd party and the entire processing of these numbers is open for inspection.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 It is all there, day-to-day, including breakdown by country and operating system.\u00a0 We have nothing to hide.<\/p>\n<p>The LibreOffice numbers, on the other hand, we only know from download claims in press releases, and then only at long intervals.\u00a0 We have no idea what exactly they are counting.\u00a0 They have never made the detailed stats public.\u00a0 This does not mean that the numbers are incorrect of course.\u00a0 It just means that no one outside of their project&#8217;s leadership is able to verify the claims.<\/p>\n<h3>Actual Numbers<\/h3>\n<p>But taken for what its worth, let&#8217;s look the recent LibreOffice claims and compare it to the actual data posted by Apache.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>On Sept 27th, LibreOffice <a href=\"http:\/\/blog.documentfoundation.org\/2012\/09\/27\/the-document-foundation-celebrates-its-second-anniversary-and-starts-fundraising-campaign-to-reach-the-next-stage\/\">claimed<\/a> &#8220;Downloads since January 25, 2011, the date of the first stable release, have just exceeded 18 million&#8221;.<\/li>\n<li>On that same day, OpenOffice had accumulated 18,207,610 download via SourceForge.\u00a0 (Per the posted data file, which you can verify against SourceForge&#8217;s Stats API if you wish)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So both projects are doing equally well, yes?<\/p>\n<p>Well, no, not at all.\u00a0 You need to take the time interval into consideration.\u00a0 The LibreOffice counts were from January, 2011.\u00a0 The OpenOffice counts were from May, 2012.\u00a0 So in just a few months OpenOffice was downloaded as many times as LibreOffice was in its first two years.<\/p>\n<p>If we convert to an average daily download rate we see:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>LibreOffice:\u00a0\u00a0 18,000,000\/611 days = 29, 460 \/day<\/li>\n<li>Apache OpenOffice:\u00a0 18,207,610\/143 days = 127, 326 \/day<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So the download rate has been 4x greater for Apache OpenOffice, and shows no sign of slowing.<\/p>\n<p>A chart might make this clearer, showing the actually OpenOffice download figures (that is why the line is a little wavy) and the claimed LibreOffice trend.\u00a0 (Anyone want to guess on what this chart will look like six months from now?)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/2d823b65bb.nxcli.io\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/download-comp.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Download Comparison\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/2d823b65bb.nxcli.io\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/download-comp.png\" width=\"894\" height=\"593\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3>Downloads versus Users<\/h3>\n<p>It is important when looking at download numbers that one does not equate download counts with user counts.\u00a0 This is especially true when you are dealing with upgrade cycles.\u00a0 As you probably know, neither OpenOffice nor LibreOffice have an incremental update facility.\u00a0 If you want to update, say from Apache OpenOffice 3.4.0 to 3.4.1 then you need to download a complete copy of 3.4.1 and install it over your 3.4.0.<\/p>\n<p>This complicates things.\u00a0 Upgrades tend to inflate the download counts, since an upgraded user is counted twice: once for their original download and a second time for their upgrade. \u00a0\u00a0 This makes estimating the number of users from the number of downloads tricky.\u00a0 So to be fair, when estimating the number of Apache OpenOffice users we must not neglect the impact of having a minor maintenance release on causing two downloads for users who upgraded.<\/p>\n<p>But if this is an impact on OpenOffice, which had only two releases to reach 18,207,610 downloads, then how much greater must be the impact for LibreOffice?\u00a0 For example, their 3.5.x series had <a href=\"http:\/\/blog.documentfoundation.org\/2012\/10\/18\/the-document-foundation-announces-libreoffice-3-5-7\/\">7 releases<\/a> to fix critical bugs.\u00a0 Their download counts included downloads from 3.3.x,\u00a0 3.4.x\u00a0 and 3.6.x series as well, each one with its own set of bug fix releases.\u00a0 One must assume, due to the long duration of this reporting interval (nearly two years) and the instability of the early releases within each series, that LibreOffice users have upgraded numerous times each, causing numerous duplicate download counts, and leading the aggregate download count to reflect several times the number of actual users.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, having a rapid release cycle with no incremental update facility will juice your download numbers since each real user will end up downloading many copies of your product.\u00a0 Since LibreOffice had a dozen or more releases, and OpenOffice only two, it is logical to conclude that the LibreOffice user numbers are far less than suggested by their download numbers, perhaps lower by a factor of 4 or 5.<\/p>\n<h3>Objection: External Sites<\/h3>\n<p>I anticipate several objections against the above analysis, so let&#8217;s treat those one by one.<\/p>\n<p>First, one might note that LibreOffice has claimed an additional two million downloads from &#8220;external sites offering the same package&#8221;.\u00a0 Since these claims are not backed with names or numbers, I cannot say much other than the fact that OpenOffice is downloaded from external websites as well.\u00a0 But we don&#8217;t count those in our main download counts.\u00a0\u00a0 But suppose we wanted to, and wanted to do apples-to- apples comparison with LibreOffice, with numbers from a 3rd party neutral source?<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s take Download.com, CNET&#8217;s software download repository, one of the most popular download sites around, as an example.\u00a0 Here are the download numbers for the 3-month period from 7\/28\/12 through 10\/28\/12:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/download.cnet.com\/OpenOffice-org\/3000-18483_4-10263109.html?tag=mncol;1\">OpenOffice:<\/a>\u00a0328,846 downloads<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/download.cnet.com\/LibreOffice\/3000-18483_4-75337651.html?tag=mncol;1\">LibreOffice<\/a>:\u00a0 18,008 downloads<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In this case the OpenOffice download numbers are greater by a factor of 18x.<\/p>\n<p>So I don&#8217;t think the external download sites changes things much.\u00a0 The numbers are small overall, but per day the OpenOffice numbers are far higher than LibreOffice&#8217;s.<\/p>\n<h3>Objection: Linux users<\/h3>\n<p>On top of the 20 million users LibreOffice claims on Windows and Mac, they also stick a finger in the air and decide they have 30 million Linux users as well.\u00a0 This leads to <a href=\"http:\/\/blog.documentfoundation.org\/2012\/10\/17\/conference-announcements\/\">extravagant claims<\/a> like, &#8220;As of today, LibreOffice is being used by close to 60 million people&#8221;.\u00a0 They don&#8217;t detail how they arrive at this number, but it appears to be the culmination of a series of implausible assumptions:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Take the highest of the several estimates for the number of Linux desktops<\/li>\n<li>Assume that everyone is using their Linux desktop for\u00a0 document editing<\/li>\n<li>Conveniently ignore AbiWord, KOffice, Gnumeric, Calligra, Google Docs or even MS Office under Wine, and assume that everyone on Linux uses LibreOffice.<\/li>\n<li>Ignore the many Linux users who are displeased with LibreOffice and who have uninstalled it and replaced it with OpenOffice instead.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>They make these assumptions and then claim another 30 million LibreOffice users on top of their inflated claim of 20 million Windows\/Mac users.<\/p>\n<p>But this really misses the point.\u00a0 The trajectory is what matters.\u00a0 In a long race you bet on the faster horse, not the one who has a small head start.\u00a0 You can have 100% of the 3% Linux desktop market and even under the rosiest assumptions that is only 3%. \u00a0\u00a0 And that number is decreasing, as desktop users move to tablets, where Android is the player and the\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/source.android.com\/source\/licenses.html\">Apache License is preferred for userspace code<\/a>.\u00a0 And I doubt Google will prefer LibreOffice in this space over their own<a href=\"http:\/\/www.quickoffice.com\/google_acquires_quickoffice\/\"> recent QuickOffice acquisition<\/a>, which already has an app supporting Android (and iOS).<\/p>\n<p>Another point is that one should not equate users who intentionally download and install a product\u00a0 with users who have it automatically installed as part of an OS, without their knowledge.\u00a0 These are not the same thing, and to treat them as such is to confuse a downhill skier with someone who fell down a snowy hill.\u00a0 The one does something intentionally;\u00a0 the other has something done to them.<\/p>\n<p>That is not to say that Linux users are not important.\u00a0 We certainly treat Linux as a first-class platform within the project.\u00a0 I&#8217;d like to see us do the packaging work necessary to make Apache OpenOffice available to users on Linux, via their distros.\u00a0\u00a0 Users should have choice, even on Linux.\u00a0 If you&#8217;re interested in helping with this,\u00a0 send me an email.<\/p>\n<h3>Objection: All numbers are incomparable<\/h3>\n<p>Another objection is to say that all projects live in a different context, with a different user base and that the numbers can never be compared against each other in a fair way.\u00a0 All is relative, subjective, and LibreOffice is justified in making any claim it feels like, since it is its own reference and base of comparison.<\/p>\n<p>There are several counters to this objection.\u00a0 First, when LibreOffice publishes numbers, in press releases and blog posts, it has an obligation not to deceive its readers.\u00a0 This is basic professional ethics.\u00a0\u00a0 When you claim a certain number of users, there should be some solid basis for making that claim, not merely the absence of contradictory information.\u00a0 In any case, I&#8217;ve provided adequate contradictory data in this post.<\/p>\n<p>Another counter is to point out that some comparisons are closest to an apples-to-apples comparison.\u00a0 For example, the number of Windows downloads directly from a project&#8217;s website.\u00a0 OOr downloads from a neutral 3rd party website like CNet&#8217;s Download.com.\u00a0\u00a0 Of course we can debate the fine details and nuances to the right of the decimal place.\u00a0 But that does not provide an excuse for conflating download numbers with user numbers in a\u00a0 press release.\u00a0 You may not know everything, but you should know that this is not right.<\/p>\n<h3>Summary<\/h3>\n<p>Apache OpenOffice makes available detailed download statistics in near-realtime for inspection. \u00a0 LibreOffice makes download claims in press releases at wide intervals with no supporting data.<\/p>\n<p>If you do an apples-to-apples comparison, of Windows and Mac users, which together constitute 97% of the desktop market,\u00a0 Apache OpenOffice, although it took a while to make its first release,\u00a0 3.4.0, has taken off like a rocket, and has eliminated any head-start advantage LibreOffice had, and is racing ahead with 4x the downloads that LibreOffice is reporting. And since the LibreOffice numbers are inflated by duplicate counting of upgrade downloads, OpenOffice is probably already ahead of LibreOffice in users on these platforms by a factor of 10 or more.<\/p>\n<p>Under a series of implausible assumptions, LibreOffice claims an additional 30 million users on Linux.\u00a0 The actual number is unknown, but likely far less.\u00a0 But since Linux desktops are only 3% of the desktop market, and that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2012\/09\/08\/technology\/intel-downgrades-sales-expectations.html\">market is shrinking<\/a>, this is<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2012\/08\/27\/tech\/web\/apple-linux-desktop\/index.html\"> not a realistic growth opportunity<\/a> for LibreOffice.<\/p>\n<p>(This post represents my personal opinion only.\u00a0 The <a href=\"https:\/\/2d823b65bb.nxcli.io\/blog\/who-is-rob-weir\">standard disclaimer<\/a> applies.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This post represents my personal opinion only.\u00a0 The standard disclaimer applies.) Part II is here and Part III is here. The Claims I&#8217;ve recently read some implausible claims from the LibreOffice project,\u00a0 concerning their stats for downloads and users.\u00a0 (These two different statistics are unfortunately conflated in their publicity campaigns, but more about that later).\u00a0\u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[48,22],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2045","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-fud","7":"category-openoffice","8":"entry"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.robweir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2045","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.robweir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.robweir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.robweir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.robweir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2045"}],"version-history":[{"count":41,"href":"https:\/\/www.robweir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2045\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2205,"href":"https:\/\/www.robweir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2045\/revisions\/2205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.robweir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.robweir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.robweir.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}